Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.034602 0.039466 0.044801 0.051095 0.058323 0.066372 0.076030
2025-01-05 0.025879 0.032158 0.039685 0.049398 0.061637 0.076593 0.096331
2025-01-12 0.021430 0.028192 0.036794 0.048586 0.064407 0.085006 0.114035
2025-01-19 0.017922 0.024684 0.033705 0.046694 0.065035 0.090187 0.127601
2025-01-26 0.016448 0.023589 0.033528 0.048475 0.070568 0.102307 0.151879
2025-02-02 0.015252 0.022676 0.033407 0.050189 0.076035 0.114760 0.177981
2025-02-09 0.014243 0.021884 0.033312 0.051835 0.081459 0.127599 0.206075
2025-02-16 0.012926 0.020453 0.032066 0.051506 0.083679 0.135583 0.227226
2025-02-23 0.011934 0.019413 0.031292 0.051789 0.086827 0.145272 0.252199
2025-03-02 0.010882 0.018158 0.030028 0.051096 0.088204 0.152056 0.272820
2025-03-09 0.010273 0.017572 0.029795 0.052094 0.092543 0.164299 0.304532
2025-03-16 0.009475 0.016580 0.028768 0.051576 0.094090 0.171675 0.328001
2025-03-23 0.009089 0.016291 0.028964 0.053325 0.100063 0.187968 0.370949
2025-03-30 0.008219 0.015053 0.027354 0.051582 0.099290 0.191498 0.389191
2025-04-06 0.007571 0.014159 0.026283 0.050730 0.100109 0.198123 0.414443
2025-04-13 0.006848 0.013056 0.024717 0.048750 0.098454 0.199592 0.428933
2025-04-20 0.006659 0.012963 0.025068 0.050614 0.104815 0.218118 0.482738
2025-04-27 0.006472 0.012854 0.025375 0.052407 0.111206 0.237387 0.540687
2025-05-04 0.006287 0.012732 0.025638 0.054129 0.117615 0.257384 0.602923
2025-05-11 0.005909 0.012178 0.024970 0.053785 0.119422 0.267339 0.642565
2025-05-18 0.005622 0.011790 0.024613 0.054082 0.122696 0.280968 0.692945
2025-05-25 0.005267 0.011226 0.023833 0.053356 0.123525 0.288970 0.730216
2025-06-01 0.005088 0.011031 0.023831 0.054401 0.128640 0.307746 0.797781